A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
